A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
